Predictions and betting analysis for the first quarter-final of the Cup, between AEK and PAOK.
The Greek Cup quarter-finals kick off tonight and of course all eyes will be on New Philadelphia, for the first match between AEK and PAOK. We remind you that the games are doubles, the away goals rule does not apply and the second leg in Toumba is set for January 9.
In order to reach the quarterfinals, AEK eliminated Aris in the previous round. First, they beat him 1-0 at home and then drew 1-1 in Thessaloniki, equalizing with Martial in the 80th minute.
On the other hand, PAOK had a clearly easier task, given that they crossed paths with Aegaleo, a team from the second national team. So he went through the 16 with a total score of 10-1 and Razvan Lucescu to open the rotation, giving playing time to players who are not in the foreground (Samata, Thymianis, Pavlenka, Gomes).
The Romanian coach also shuffled the deck quite a bit in the recent match for the championship, with Panaitolikos for Agrinio, a sign that he also had the first quarter-final with AEK in mind. Compared to that game, Constantelias, Tyson, Baba, Ozdoev and Brandon are all set to return to the lineup, while the promoted Despodov is available again. The main problem for Lucescu is the injury to the in-form Yoni Oto, whose void Sastre will try to fill.
As far as AEK is concerned, Matias Almeida now seems to have settled in a specific eleven that does the job for him. In the Cup, of course, it is quite possible to see some differences, given that the Union has a very wide and quality roster.
Especially in the midfield line, there is an overabundance of solutions (Pineda, Ljubicic, Lamela, Martial, Levi, Eliasson, Gacinovic, Koita, Piero, Mandalos). From there, Almeida will continue to trust Brignoli in the ace, for the cup matches. In the backs, Rota will logically return instead of Odubajo, who played in Lamia, and Hadjisafi instead of Pelios. In the center of the defense, the Mitoglou-Mukudi duo will not be broken, since Vida is not yet ready. In the midfield, Jonsson is expected to take Szymanski’s place and will likely have Pereira alongside him.
AEK are on a four-game mini-undefeated streak, with three league wins and a cup-qualifying draw with Aris. In general, her reaction after the heavy 4-1 defeat in Faliro by Olympiakos was exemplary. Although there have been shocks, she has absorbed them and is firmly within her two goals.
If nothing else, PAOK is also in a good phase, as it is undefeated in seven consecutive matches in all competitions. Especially, after the unexpected 2-2 draw with Athens Kallithea in Toumba, he showed the required reflexes. He won 4-1 in Serres, hammered Ferencvaros 5-0 in Toumba in his best display of the year and on Sunday avoided a banana peel in Agrinio, picking up an important double with an alternative line-up, even if overall he did not convince with his performance.
It couldn’t be more ambiguous
So everything foreshadows a very big and ambiguous battle between the two Two-Headed. Something similar had happened in the last between them against New Philadelphia for the championship, on October 20, when they had drawn 1-1 for the Stoiximan Super League. That game, in fact, had an episodic finale, with Razvan Lucescu leaving for the locker room, after the final whistle, in a tense atmosphere.
In general, three of the last four derbies between them have ended in draws. Taking into account the fact that a rematch follows, it is possible that AEK and PAOK will leave their accounts open, taking few risks in the first game. At 3.35 in Stoiximan the draw.
In the same logic, it can stand and the Under 10.5 finals of PAOK, at 1.80 in Stoiximan. After all, the Northern Biceps, in their previous five visits to the OPAP Arena, have never managed to stage more than ten finals. Specifically, he did four, eight, four, three and four respectively. So the line here is probably a bit pinched and allows us to go Under.
* Yields may be subject to change.
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